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South Kingstown
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Once again, the grief-stricken faces of Israeli families who have lost a young soldier in southern Lebanon are on the front page. An Israeli brigadier general was killed in a bombing attack. And Israelis still do not know why these sacrifices are being made. Israeli prime ministers, the late Yitzhak Rabin, then Shimon Peres, and now Benjamin Netanyahu, have all talked about a unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon, yet the tragic loss of life on both sides continues with no end in sight.
Israeli leaders have chosen not to respond to a growing sentiment in Israel that its self-styled "security zone" in southern Lebanon is a no-win situation. Israelis tend to forget that Hezbollah as a militia did not exist until Israel's ill-conceived invasion of Lebanon in 1982. This militia, established to resist Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, is directly supplied by Syria with arms from Iran delivered to Damascus. According to United Nations officials and other military experts in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is now a highly disciplined and trained force, but it is not a standing army. Ironically, Hezbollah's existence as a militia gives both Syria and Iran a cost-free hand in southern Lebanon as a result of Israel's security zone there.
Hezbollah's leadership has repeatedly stated that the militia's resistance to the presence of the Israel Defense Forces in southern Lebanon will continue until Israel withdraws. When that happens, they say, there will be no need for a fighting force, implying that the militia will be disbanded as other Lebanese militias were following the Taif agreement in 1989. Iran publicly concurs with this position, but Israel has refused to test this possibility.
Lebanon's president, General Emile Lahoud, formerly head of the Lebanese Army, deserves credit for integrating, training and disciplining a multiconfessional national force in Lebanon. There is no doubt, says the U.S. military, that this Lebanese army is capable of deploying in the south when Israel withdraws to protect the international border. Hezbollah insists that it will not interfere with the deployment to the south of the Lebanese Army.
Lebanon cannot and will not sign a security or any other agreement with Israel at this time, however. Israel's prime minister knows that mutually acceptable logistical arrangements for Israel's quick withdrawal from the south and the simultaneous deployment of the Lebanese Army will not be an obstacle. Obviously, Lebanon has to be sensitive to the will of its Syrian patrons, but what interest does Israel have in allowing Damascus to maintain Hezbollah as a force Syria can use against Israel?
Both the United States and Israel have hinted that after the Israeli elections this spring, Syria may be ready to engage again in negotiations. Israel's strategists are aware that Syria wants to get credit for Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon as part of an Israeli-Syrian deal. American and Israeli policymakers claim that "Syria is needed for the peace process." Lebanon is a casualty of this Israeli-Syrian game.
Despite the usual innuendos, supposed secret plans and conspiracies that run rampant in the Middle East, there may be a workable formula for Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon now, but it requires U.S. policymakers to take a strategic rather than a tactical view: Israel agrees to a quick unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon, making provisions for some of the top officers of the Israel-sponsored Southern Lebanese Army to live outside Lebanon. Logistical arrangements are made through the good offices of the United States and, simultaneously, Washington uses its formidable political influence to inform Damascus that:
- Israel is going to withdraw unilaterally.
- This is an important first step for regional stability.
- Syria's interests will be taken seriously in negotiations with the Israelis, including withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
- Syria, with 30,000 troops in Lebanon, is responsible for security there, and Damascus will be publicly held accountable by the United States for anything that might happen in Lebanon to disturb, interrupt or delay Israel's unilateral withdrawal.
- Hezbollah will be expected to lay down its arms and disband without a former arrangement, as all other Lebanese militias have.
The result can be a stable and secure international border between Lebanon and Israel, a development that will be immensely popular and supported throughout the Arab world and in Israel. Syria will be forewarned of severe consequences and public blame if it uses its veto power and will be told that only nonmilitary means and direct negotiations will produce positive results. Israel will be relieved of its torturous and painful history in Lebanon. Negotiating with the Palestinians and reestablishing negotiations with Syria and Lebanon can again become the primary focus of Israeli and American diplomacy.
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